DP8248 | Financial Black-Holes: The Interaction of Financial Regulation and Bailout Guarantees

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This paper argues that the U.S. financial crisis is a new type of crisis: a "financial black hole." Financial black holes are characterized by the breaking-up of credit market discipline and the large-scale financing of negative NPV projects. In a theoretical model, we explain how the combination of perceived government guarantees and the ability to issues catastrophe-bond-like liabilities generate financial black holes. We then show that the stylized facts of the U.S. economy are consistent with a financial black hole equilbrium.