DP1836 | Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe

Publication Date

31/03/1998

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Abstract

This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government?s finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.