DP3426 | How do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?


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The objective of this study is to investigate the behaviour of monetary and fiscal authorities in the Euro area. Our main contribution is joint modeling of behaviour of the two authorities. Our investigation highlights a number of facts. The systematic monetary policies adopted by the non-German authorities in the seventies were not capable of stabilizing inflation. Such results have been achieved in the eighties and the nineties by anchoring more tightly domestic monetary policy to German monetary policy. All the main episodes of expansionary fiscal policy which have occurred in the course of the eighties and the nineties in Europe cannot be explained by the systematic behaviour of fiscal authorities. Stabilization of inflation has been achieved independently from the lack of fiscal discipline. There are important interactions between the two authorities but they depend exclusively on the responses of governments expenditures and receipts to interest rate payments on the public debt.